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China overtaking the US

Some people (even though there are naturally fewer and fewer of them as times goes by) believe that the US might keep its first place ahead of China not only for the next decade but also on an even longer term. It is not too difficult to find articles full of numbers that supposedly show that China will not overpass the US not only in a near future but also that US might remain the only superpower just like in the previous century.

Examples of such articles include:

Some of their main arguments are comparing China to Japan or highlight the current Chinese economic slowdown.

Comparing China to Japan is a clear illustration of a deep lack of understating of both economics and demographics.

When it comes to the Chinese economic slowdown, everyone has to keep in mind one thing: When the Chinese economy is slowing it still grows at roughly 6% per year!!! A figure that the US can only dream about. Another view is that Chinese (and Asian countries in general) could not innovate but can only base their growth in copying occidental technologies. At Anh Thomas Investment we are not buying into these theories. Of course it would be safer for us to write that "you never know" "something might happen" but that is not the way we are at Anh Thomas Investment. There are some topics on which we have very strong views and this is one of them. In our minds, there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the Chinese economy will overtake the US within the next 20 years.

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