Analysis as of 25 October 2023
The gravity of our forecasts and their consistently precise nature since the inception of our company have established us as a trusted authority in the eyes of a wide audience, including discerning clients, experts, and finance professionals alike. While our conclusions may occasionally diverge from the mainstream opinions, their accuracy has garnered widespread attention and recognition in the financial community
At Anh Thomas Investment, our forecasting method is tailored to country-level analysis, meticulously integrating various economic indicators and factors. This includes a comprehensive assessment of country-specific macroeconomic data, corporate earnings, market sentiment, and global events. We closely monitor changes in government policies, consumer trends, housing markets, and commodity prices at the country level. By taking a localized approach, we provide you with insights for making informed investment decisions and navigating the intricacies of global financial markets. Our analysis should not be used as a short term trading strategy.
International Stock market valuation opinions
The following tables offer insights into projected investment returns within the Vietnamese stock markets, with a specific focus on 5-year and 10-year horizons. These anticipated returns are outlined across various scenarios, shedding light on potential outcomes.
In the worst 10% of scenarios for a 5-year investment, there is less than a 10% chance of experiencing a loss exceeding 21% of your initial investment.
In the best 10% of scenarios for a 10-year investment, there is a 10% chance of realizing gains surpassing 295% of your initial investment.
It's important to note that these projected returns do not factor in currency fluctuations but also exclude the impact of dividends.
Notably, dividends in Vietnam are known for their substantial contributions to overall returns.
Property prices valuation in major global cities opinions
LOS ANGELES, USA
NEW YORK, USA
HONG KONG, CHINA
At Anh Thomas Investment, our proprietary model is designed to analyze property prices on a global scale, identifying overvalued and undervalued cities. We meticulously integrate various economic indicators and factors, offering a comprehensive assessment of property markets in specific cities. This includes factors like local economic conditions, market sentiment, and global events that impact property prices. Our model also closely monitors factors such as government policies, real estate trends, and the dynamics of commodity prices at the city level.
By adopting a localized approach, our goal is to provide you with invaluable insights for making well-informed decisions regarding property investments and navigating the intricacies of the global real estate market.
It's important to note that our analysis is geared toward long-term investment strategies and should not be used for short-term property trading decisions.
Currencies valuation opinions
US Dollar (USD):
Short Term: Confidence in a near-term strong outlook due to a defensive currency with high yields and robust growth.
Long Term: Anticipation of a sustained 10%-15% decline in the dollar as global economic slowdown prompts a coordinated global recovery.
Canadian Dollar (CAD):
Short Term: Neutral stance with improved oil prices offsetting economic softening; potential underperformance against the US dollar.
Long Term: Expectation of competitive Canadian growth, viewing the Canadian dollar as undervalued relative to the euro, Swiss franc, and US dollar.
Short Term: Neutral to slightly negative view based on weaker economic data; potential downward pressure due to Italian fiscal concerns.
Long Term: Uncertainty persists; outlook influenced by ongoing economic challenges and fiscal considerations.
British Pound (GBP):
Short Term: Increasingly negative outlook amid economic deceleration, high inflation, and poor equity performance; fair value projected to trend lower.
Long Term: Pound viewed as cheap but faces challenges due to low productivity growth and persistent inflation.
Japanese Yen (JPY):
Short Term: Continued struggle due to negative short-term interest rates, particularly against the US dollar.
Long Term: Expected strengthening against non-US-dollar currencies, supported by improved yield differentials and safe-haven demand.
Swiss Franc (CHF):
Short Term: Negative outlook due to overvaluation, softening growth data, and low yields; expected dovish shift in SNB policy.
Long Term: Correction lower anticipated for the highly overvalued franc, influenced by global economic concerns.
Norwegian Krone (NOK):
Short Term: Increasingly positive outlook in the near term, driven by oversold conditions and favorable oil prices.
Long Term: Positive bias limited to the near term; medium-term risks due to slower growth and market volatility.
Swedish Krona (SEK):
Short Term: Neutral to modestly negative bias; potential for outperformance as the ECB adopts a more dovish stance.
Long Term: Expected appreciation toward long-run fair value as inflation comes under control and the economy recovers.
Australian Dollar (AUD):
Short Term: Downside risks due to global growth concerns; potential reversal of strong downtrend amid positive domestic signs.
Long Term: Mixed outlook; considered cheap against certain currencies but faces risks associated with global growth uncertainties.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD):
Short Term: Pessimistic outlook in the near term, influenced by recession, weak external balance, and potential headwinds from Chinese growth.
Long Term: Mixed outlook with potential for appreciation against certain currencies; influenced by long-run fair value estimates and global economic factors.